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	AP ECB Is Expected to Hold Rates Steady Wednesday July 6, 1:58 pm ET By Matt Moore, AP Business Writer   European Central Bank Is Expected to Hold Rates Steady at 2 Percent, Despite Calls for a Cut FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- With the euro losing its momentum against the dollar, oil back at $60 a barrel and economic growth in Europe slowing, the European Central Bank is facing louder and more frequent calls for a rate cut. But the clamor seems unlikely to have an effect when the bank's Governing Council meets Thursday. Economists and analysts predict that the rate will stay at 2 percent, where it has been for more than two years. So the key will remain what ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet says afterward. Last month, Trichet set off speculation that he might be open to the possibility of a cut when he did not resolutely declare that the bank was not preparing for any reduction. But while noting oil prices and the euro's slide, he sees upside risks to inflation -- a tacit hint that the 2 percent rate was appropriate for the 12-nation euro-zone. "While the appreciation of the euro exchange rate in 2004 contributed to lower inflationary pressures, increases in administered prices, indirect taxes and rises in the oil price visibly affected headline inflation rates," he said in remarks prepared to be delivered to the European Parliament. Pressure on the bank to cut increased after Sweden's Riksbank unexpectedly cut its own rates to 1.5 percent last month. Similarly, the Bank of England, which also meets Thursday, has met calls to ease its interest rate from 4.75 percent -- where it has stood since August 2004 -- in the wake of sour economic figures. Standard & Poor's said last week that a rate cut by the ECB was long overdue and any decision to leave it unchanged would mean the chance "is high that the bank might replicate the serious mistakes made by the Bank of Japan 12 years ago." In 1993, the Japanese bank did not cut rates, a move that some economists said put the country into deflation, when prices fall over time. "With concern about the economy in the euro area unbroken, it is hardly surprising that financial markets continue to bet on a further ECB rate cut," said Michael Schubert of Commerzbank. Lower rates can help create jobs and boost growth and stock markets in the short term, but they also can fuel corrosive inflation down the road. Schubert said the bank's anti-inflation outlook meant a rate cut wasn't likely. "Quite a number of council members stressed that current borrowing costs were appropriate and the bank had no bias," Schubert said. "In addition, several members of the Governing Council recently repeated the conclusion reached in the June monthly bulletin that risks to price stability remain on upside." German trade union DGB said last month that arguments that inflation is evident in Spain and Ireland were not reasons to keep rates unchanged. "Italy is already in recession and Germany is in stagnation," it said in a report. The economy in the Netherlands shrank by a half percent during the first quarter, the government said Wednesday, the first contraction since 2003. But analysts are careful to point out that for the most part, indicators in the 12 countries that use the euro show their economies are improving. Manufacturing results for Germany, Italy and France were better in June. And though the euro zone's services purchasing manager's index slipped slightly this week, it still showed expansion. Schubert said any rate cut now runs the risk of sending a message of no-confidence in the euro zone. "Would a rate cut be interpreted as a sign that the central bank will do everything it can to support growth?" he asked. "Or would it be interpreted more in a way that ultimately even the ECB has lost confidence in the euro area's economy?"。

	Daily FX Another Volatile Day For The Dollar Wednesday July 6, 3:16 pm ET By DailyFX Research Team The dollar faced another volatile day in the New York session as investors weighed the pros and cons of positive US economic data and skyrocketing oil prices. The release of the ISM non-manufacturing index, a measure of growth in US service companies, showed acceleration as it beat expectations and increased to 62.2 from 58.5 in May. The services sector is the largest part of the US economy, accounting for about two-thirds of GDP. The prices paid component rose to 59.9 from 57.9 last month as purchased materials and services prices were pushed up by crude oil. The employment component also saw a jump as it reached 57.4, the highest since February, from 53.4 and may contribute to the overall employment picture at the end of this week. Tomorrow's economic data should be light, but important, nonetheless. Initial jobless claims from the week ending July 2 are expected to rise to 320K from 310K the previous week. This increase could be due to recent auto plant shutdowns throughout the US. Non-farm payrolls, which will be announced on Friday, is the indicator currently causing the most buzz. The figure is expected to jump to 189K from 78K as a result of improved hiring intentions and overall positive business confidence. The rising price of crude oil seemed to make more of an impact on the equity markets today, as they brushed the ISM numbers aside. Crude oil rose $0.93 to $60.52 a barrel at 16:40 GMT on the New York Mercantile Exchange after Tropical Storm Cindy disrupted shipments along the US Gulf coast and another storm threatened the region. The Dow Jones was down 41.66, or 0.40 percent, to 10,330.14, the NASDAQ rose 0.81, or 0.04 percent, to 2,079.56, and the S&P 500 slipped 3.89, or 0.32 percent, to 1,201.10 as of 17:09 GMT. Darden, the operator of Olive Garden and Red Lobster Restaurants, lost$ 0.92, or 2.80 percent, to $31.90 as an analyst commented that companies with above-average exposure to middle-income customers might be affected by oil prices, hurting company profits. The world's largest biotechnology company, Amgen, increased $1.44, or 2.30 percent, to $63.95 today. The company claimed that interim data from a study evaluating Aranesp, a drug to treat anemia patients with a bone marrow disorder, suggested a major response. Oracle Corp. gained $0.22, or 1.66 percent, to $13.49. The third-biggest software maker agreed to buy ProfitLogic Inc. to increase sales of business programs used by retailers. ProfitLogic's software is used by 30 large retailers to analyze customer-demand patterns for use in inventory, pricing and merchandising decisions. Financial terms weren't disclosed as of yet. US 10-year note yields were down 2 basis points to 4.082 percent at 17:02 GMT on speculation that yields failed to reflect expectations for tamed inflation.。

	Daily FX Dollar Juggles Sharp Rise In Layoffs and Strong Non-Manufacturing ISM Report Wednesday July 6, 7:51 pm ET By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist Dollar Juggles Sharp Rise In Layoffs and Strong Non-Manufacturing ISM Report Euro Rebounds As German Data Continues To Improve Market Anticipation Rises On Eve Of BOE Announcement US Dollar Finally a strong whiff of fresh air for the US dollar. The service sector ISM report jumped a whopping 3.7 points to 62.2 from 58.5. This follows the rebound that we already saw in the manufacturing sector ISM last week. The most interesting point though about today's release is that the rally in the dollar was very limited after the strong number, with the euro recuperating its losses quickly. What we have been seeing lately is the dollar rallying more often off of weak numbers than strong numbers. This tells us that there are signs of exhaustion on the upside and that it will take far stronger data to push the dollar beyond current levels. Now we could very well see this from Friday's non-farm payrolls report which is one of the most market moving indicators for the US dollar. The market currently expects 198k jobs to be added in the month of June following the 78k growth that we saw in May. Most of the jobs are coming from the service sector and not the manufacturing sector, so the sharp rise in the employment component of the service sector ISM along with low jobless claims should support a much stronger number. However according to IFR, over the past 13 years, economists have over-forecasted payrolls at least two-thirds of the time, which means this time the odds are probably against them once again. This is a big possibility especially since the Challenger report of planned layoffs hit a 17-month high last month, increasing 35%. The most alarming thing is that according to the Challenger Group, there tends to be less layoffs in the summer months, but "The fact that job cuts are rising in the summer is not even the most surprising trend," said John Challenger, CEO of the firm. "The surprise is that we are seeing a growing number of mass job cuts." Don't expect any job additions in the manufacturing since the employment component of the ISM report for the sector contracted once again in June. Meanwhile, shifting focus for a second, we continue yesterday's look into the housing market. USA Today was running a report this morning on mobile homes having been recently sold for $1.3 million dollars and $1.1 million dollars in Malibu - If those numbers donÂ’t signal a bubble, we wonder what would. Euro The Euro managed to rally for the second consecutive day, albeit modestly. The story remains very much the same, although some Parisians are probably spending the night sulking about their lost Olympic Bid to London. Recent rivalry and animosity has been fierce between the two countries led by verbal attacks between Chirac and Blair. Data continues to be mostly supportive of a gradual recovery in the Eurozone economy and proof that the weaker currency is having a more beneficial effect on the economy than the drag that they are experiencing from the continual rise in oil prices. German factory orders increased 2.7% in May, erasing the 2.6% slide that we saw the previous month. Although retail PMI for the region fell into contractionary territory to 49.1 from 50.2 in June, both France and Germany experienced gains. This should leave the ECB solidly neutral when they announce their decision on interest rates tomorrow. The following press conference should confirm that for the time being, that the ECB really has no place to move. British Pound Good but not good enough seems to be the sentiment in the U.K. today as both industrial and manufacturing production were further suggestive of a slowdown in the regionÂ’s economy. Although figures were relatively flat compared with consensusÂ’ expectations of a decline, the report still confirms earlier speculation that EuropeÂ’s second largest economy has been halted temporarily. Even furthering the downside on the domestic currency were lower readings on the shop price index presented by the British Retail Consortium. According to the June showing, price inflation remained contained as retail prices were incrementally higher than prices seen a year ago. Although this notion can be fully embraced by the consumer, it simply adds to confirmation that repurchase rate hikes are absolutely unnecessary in the region and subsequently bolsters speculation of near term rate cuts. However, consumer credit lending still poses a ballooning threat and thus complicates the situation for policy officials. The scene is now set for the announcement tomorrow and although a stay is more than likely, given the current state, a rate cut decision should not be ruled out. Japanese Yen After a short breather, yen selling resumed today on higher oil prices in light of further indications that the region is slowly but surely rising to the expansionary challenge. Although the leading and coincident indexes are simply a compendium of previously released reports, the figures still reflect an overall positive sentiment and contributes to the string of optimistic data we have seen thus far. However, one caveat remains ever present as it has over the long term, oil prices. Market participants, fearing supply concerns over disruptions in the Gulf Coast, bid up the precious commodity for consecutive sessions, setting an all time high of $61.35 for August delivery. As previously mentioned, higher energy costs mean rising prices for individuals on the consumer level. As a result, domestic consumption may slump and leave output rather eroded. Additionally, exporters may be forced to deal with rising energy costs by assuming the increases in bolstering continued demand from abroad. Ultimately, this poses a great risk to the economy, specifically through the eyes of the monetary authority. With interest rates already at near zero levels, policy makers may have little no options in the event things turn for the worse.。。

	AP U.S. Dollar Rises in Early Asian Trading Wednesday July 6, 9:54 pm ET   U.S. Dollar Rises Against Its Major Rivals in Early Asian Trading TOKYO (AP) -- The dollar rose against its major rivals in early Asian trading Thursday as the surge in oil prices weighed on the yen and other currencies. The dollar was trading at 112.27 yen Thursday morning on the Tokyo foreign exchange market, up 0.63 yen from late Wednesday and above the 112.18 yen it later bought in New York. The euro fell to $1.1928 from $1.1942. The U.S. currency was hovering near the new 11-month high of 112.29 yen it had hit Wednesday in New York as oil prices surged above $61 a barrel for the first time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Higher oil prices tend to weigh especially heavy on Japan and other Asian nations, which are seen as more vulnerable due to their deep dependence on imported crude. In New York, the British pound fell to $1.7523 from $1.7550. The dollar dropped to 1.3029 Swiss francs from 1.3035, and to 1.2361 Canadian dollars from 1.2425. Early Thursday, the dollar was also up against most other regional currencies, rising to 1.6989 Singapore dollars from S$1.6970 and to 41.655 Thai baht from 41.605 baht. The Australian dollar dipped to US$0.7384 from US$0.7410. The euro surged to an all-time high of $1.3667 at the end of December on concern about the growing U.S. trade and budget deficits, but has fallen as the Federal Reserve has continued to lift interest rates amid signs of economic expansion.。

	AP Dow Drops 101 As Oil Tops $61 Per Barrel Wednesday July 6, 10:41 pm ET By Michael J. Martinez, AP Business Writer   Dow Drops 101, Nasdaq Loses 10 As Fears of Refining Shortages Push Oil Prices Past $60 a Barrel NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks tumbled Wednesday as oil prices climbed to a new record on fears of refining shortages and caused investors to look past a report showing strong growth in the service sector of the economy. The Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 101 points. Oil closed above $61 per barrel for the first time as investors worried that Tropical Storm Cindy would hurt production in the Gulf of Mexico and refinery capacity along the coast. Reports of power outages at two Valero Energy Corp. refineries heightened investors' fears. A barrel of light crude settled at $61.28, up $1.69, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A spike in activity in the service sector failed to stem the losses. The Institute for Supply Management's services index for June came in at 62.2, higher than the 58.9 economists had expected and better than May's 58.5 reading. "There are a number of cross currents in the market right now that make it difficult to find a direction," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC. "The services report was a very pleasant surprise, and added to generally positive economic data. But then you have oil, which could slow the economy." The Dow fell 101.12, or 0.97 percent, to 10,270.68 after rising 68 points Tuesday. Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 10.05, or 0.83 percent, at 1,194.94, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 10.10, or 0.49 percent, to 2,068.65. Bonds gained ground after a strong selloff in the previous session. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.07 percent from 4.10 percent late Tuesday. Optimism about the U.S. economy pushed the dollar to an 11-month high against the Japanese yen. The greenback lost ground against the euro and other major currencies. Gold prices rose. Even as the dollar rises, oil prices have continued to climb as well -- confounding investors trying to determine the economy's direction. While the Labor Department's job creation report on Friday and the first wave of second-quarter earnings next week should clarify matters, the markets will have very little impetus to move higher until then. Valero Energy dropped $1.46 to $83.50 after the company said the outages would reduce oil refining capacity slightly. Global demand for oil and distillates have threatened to overtake supply, and any reduction in refining capacity is seen as pressure on crude futures. But despite Wednesday's market losses, analysts said bigger problems may lie ahead for the economy. "The thing here is that crude oil prices at $60 just isn't new anymore," said Chris Johnson, manager of quantitative analysis at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "The longer it stays up here, the more the market gets used to it. Now, when we see second-quarter earnings, and we're getting some grumblings about oil affecting the bottom line, that'll be a true test." Some investors also were nervous since the government's weekly energy inventory report, usually released on Wednesday, was delayed a day by the Independence Day holiday. PacifiCare Health Systems surged $4.41 to $77.09 after the company confirmed it would be acquired by UnitedHealth Services Inc. in a $8.1 billion cash-and-stock deal. It was the second-biggest acquisition ever recorded in the healthcare sector. UnitedHealth added 27 cents to $53.50. American International Group Inc. named former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt as a special adviser to the board of directors as the company struggles to emerge from an accounting scandal. AIG nonetheless lost 35 cents to $59.14. Halliburton Inc. fell 93 cents to $48.71 even after the U.S. Army awarded the company a $4.97 billion contract to provide logistics support in Iraq. The contract is $1 billion more than the previous year. General Motors Corp. won a $253 million judgment from the federal government in connection with an underfunded pension plan, The Wall Street Journal reported, though the government is likely to appeal. GM dropped 58 cents to $34.22. Regional bank Zions Utah Bancorp lost $4.69 to $68.67 after it announced it would buy Texas bank Amegy Bancorp Inc. for $1.7 billion in cash and stock, or $23.32 per share. Amegy fell $1.05 to $21.93. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by nearly 4 to 3 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 1.95 billion shares, compared with 1.85 billion traded on Tuesday. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 4.96, or 0.76 percent, at 648.27. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.11 percent. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.76 percent, France's CAC-40 gained 0.64 percent for the session, and Germany's DAX index rose 0.26 percent.。

	经济日程 日期  GMT  地点  事件  公布值  预期  上一期   2005/7/7 1:30 澳大利亚 6月失业率  5.2% 5.1% 2005/7/7 5:45 瑞士 6月失业率   3.7% 2005/7/7 11:00 英国 央行宣布最新利率  4.75% 4.75% 2005/7/7 11:45 欧元区 央行宣布最新利率  2.00% 2.00% 2005/7/7 12:30 加拿大 5月建筑许可  -0.5% -2.6% 2005/7/7 12:30 美国 7月2日当周首次申请失业救济人数   319K  310K  。