0819 HEADLINES

	[转]Reuters Dollar clings to gains after 5 day rise Friday August 19, 1:49 am ET By David McMahon TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar held gains on Friday after a five-day winning streak against a basket of major currencies, as a robust U.S. factory survey backed views the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. The Philadelphia Fed said on Thursday its business activity index jumped in August to the highest reading in four months. The data beat forecasts and added to recent figures suggesting the U.S. manufacturing sector is holding strong in the face of rising oil prices and inflation is running near the top of the Fed's perceived comfort zone, giving it reason to push rates higher. But traders said that in thin summer trade, economic data was taking a back seat to other factors driving fund flows. One factor was U.S. multinational companies buying dollars to take advantage of a recent change in tax laws that allows them to bring their overseas profits home at a lower tax rate, some traders said. "The U.S. data is good, and you can't ignore that," said Nobuaki Kubo, forex planning manager at Resona Bank. "But it's still not clear what the Fed will do after another two or three more rate hikes this year," he said, adding that trading would likely be driven by technical factors in the coming week due to a vacuum of major events. Most analysts expect the Fed to raise its funds rate to either 4.00 or 4.25 percent by the end of 2005, after it lifted it to 3.5 percent this month for its 10th straight increase. According to a Reuters poll earlier in August, most forecasters see the Fed raising rates well into 2006, but the survey of 20 primary dealers showed predictions for the peak rate ranging from 3.75 percent to 5.25 percent. Few major U.S. economic data are due next week, and Japan won't see anything significant until trade figures are released next Thursday. By 0535 GMT, the dollar bought around 110.45 yen, slightly down from the level in late U.S. trade on Thursday but still well above a seven-week low at 109.05 yen hit on Tuesday. Traders said the yen would likely keep gaining support from foreign investors, who have bought 6 trillion yen ($54.32 billion) of Japanese equities so far this calendar year, helping push the Nikkei average to four-year highs. Still, the heavy flow of foreign investment into Japanese shares in recent weeks is unsustainable, capping the yen's upward potential in the near term, some market watchers said. "This is not the kind of investment they can keep on going, given the sheer scale of it and concerns about high oil prices and their impact on the global economy and corporate earnings," said Kikuko Takeda, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. SUPPORT FOR EURO? The dollar has gained almost 2 percent against a basket of six major currencies over the past five sessions. Over the same period, the U.S. currency has gained around 2.3 percent against the euro while its rise versus the yen has been less than 1 percent. The euro was little changed at $1.2170. That was in sight of the two-week low around $1.2160 hit on Thursday, when its fall gained momentum after breaking through the key technical level of $1.2250. Some traders see the euro gaining support on any dips from big Asian banks diversifying their bulging foreign reserves. Asian countries need to think about how to deal with their growing foreign reserves and consider diversifying assets away from U.S. Treasury bills, Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese central bank's monetary policy committee, said on Friday. Japan, China and South Korea alone hold almost $2 trillion in reserves, the bulk of which is believed to be in dollars. In the three years to the end of 2004, the U.S. currency dropped roughly 30 percent against the basket of six currencies, but it has recovered this year as overnight U.S. rates rise further above those in the euro zone and Japan. ($1=110.46 yen)。

	AP Japanese Stocks Fall; Dollar Rises vs. Yen Friday August 19, 12:09 am ET   Japanese Stocks Fall as Market Takes a Breather; Dollar Rises Against Yen TOKYO (AP) -- Japanese stocks fell Friday morning as the market took a breather, with traders selling bank issues. The dollar was higher against the yen. The Nikkei 225 index fell 40.51 points, or 0.33 percent, to 12,266.86 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to end the morning session. The index rose 34.25 points, or 0.28 percent, on Thursday. The broader TOPIX, which includes all issues on the exchange's first section, declined 2.91 points, or 0.23 percent, at 1250.03. The TOPIX rose 2.84 points, or 0.23 percent, the day before. Stocks were lower Friday morning as traders sold issues such as banks to take in profits from recent rally. But traders said that support for Japanese stocks appeared solid on sustained foreign buying. On Wall Street Thursday, investors struggled through an indecisive session, finishing mixed amid concerns over higher energy costs, the prospect of declining earnings growth, and a slower economy. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 4.22, or 0.04 percent, to 10,554.93 and the Nasdaq composite index lost 9.07, or 0.42 percent, to 2,136.08. In currency trading, the dollar was at 110.40 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 11 a.m. Friday, up 0.25 yen from late Thursday but below the 110.55 yen it bought later that day in New York. The euro fell to $1.2177 from $1.2358 late Thursday. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond fell to 1.4150 percent from Thursday's close of 1.4200. Its price rose 0.04 point to 99.。

	AP Crude Oil Prices Spike on Demand Concerns Friday August 19, 12:34 am ET   Crude Prices Spike on Venezuela Fire, Demand Worries With Winter on the Horizon SINGAPORE (AP) -- The price of crude spiked Friday, as a downward spiral that dominated the week's trade ended on news of a fire at the massive Paraguana refining complex in Venezuela as demand concerns continued to weigh in with the Northern Hemisphere winter on the horizon. Front-month September crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped more than half a dollar to $63.79 a barrel midmorning in Singapore before easing slightly to $63.67, a gain of 40 cents. The contract had closed 2 cents up at $63.27 a barrel on Thursday, ending four straight days of falls following its all-time price hit of $67.10 Aug. 12. Gasoline was up 1 cent to $1.7999 a gallon while heating oil rose by more than a penny to $1.8780 in Asia. Prices were buoyed by a fire which broke out late Wednesday at the Amuay refinery in Venezuela, slashing output from a usual 410,000 barrels a day to 150,000. "Support is expected after the news," Energy reporting agency Platts said in its daily market outlook. The refinery is part of the Paraguana complex, one of the world's largest refining installations. Output is expected to return to normal in 48 hours, Venezuelan officials said. On-edge traders are monitoring such news closely, as any cut in production could be seen as eating into the world's already limited excess capacity. Refinery blackouts in the United States pushed prices into new territory last week, but futures eased this week as traders took profit. Analysts said markets were calmed by the refineries coming back online and the end of summer -- and the driving season. But demand again is expected to pick up for the Northern Hemisphere winter, where jet fuel, heating oil and diesel become high-usage commodities. "The oil market is possibly at that dramatic stage near the end of a big run, when price swings tend to be very dramatic, and the euphoria and panic levels are at extremes," said Dallas-based independent energy analyst Joe Duarte. In Nigeria, hundreds of villagers closed down a Royal Dutch/Shell PLC pumping facility, angered over a compensation amount for an oil spill nearly two years ago.。

	Daily FX Dollar - Can the Rally Last? Thursday August 18, 6:07 pm ET By Kathy Lien US Dollar The dollar grinded higher once again against the Euro. We had a lot of US economic data released today, however none of which did much to cause any sharp movements in the dollar. It seemed as if the markets had its eyes fixed on the 1.2150 level and wasn’t going to let anything stand in its way. US jobless claims increased from 310k to 316k, leading indicators rose by 0.1% while the Philly Fed index of manufacturing activity surged from 9.6 to 17.5. Even though jobless claims came in higher than expected, the absolute number of claims that we have seen over the past few weeks has coincided very well (so far) with a non-farm payrolls report that may just as strong as the last one that we saw for the month of July. As for leading indicators, the pace of growth is far from from impressive. In fact, the index suggests that growth ahead should be modest at best. The Philly Fed was the only release to surprise on the upside, but even this piece of good news had a dark cloud hanging over it. New orders surged, but the details of the report indicate that manufacturers are seeing their margins squeezed by higher production costs. Overall though, there are still signs of a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector. We continue to believe that the fate of the US dollar is contingent upon 2 factors - oil and housing. This week, we have seen oil prices hold steady above $60 a barrel and some downside surprises in the housing market data. It remains difficult for us to believe that if oil prices remain at current levels, with gasoline prices above $3 a gallon in some states that consumers can keep spending the way they have been since the beginning of the year. There are no US releases scheduled for release tomorrow, so we expect yet another quiet day. Euro The Euro continued its weeklong downtrend against the dollar. Like in the US, there were no major surprises when it came to Eurozone economic data. Annualized consumer price inflation increased to 2.2% from 2.1%, while core inflation dropped from 1.4% to 1.3%. As we had postulated, Europe was unable to escape the energy induced increase to prices globally. The central bank had already warned that inflation would remain above their 2% target for sometime. Industrial production for the region increased 0.3%, after falling 0.4% the previous month. According to the Speculative Sentiment Index released today, the ratio of long to shorts in the EURUSD is positive 1.32. This means that for every one short position, there are 1.32 long positions. The ratio had flipped from net short to net long on the afternoon following last week’s release of the SSI (8/12/05). This coincided with a 300-pip plunge in the EURUSD, which once again highlights the accuracy of the SSI. Over the past week, open interest increased 4% with long positions rising by 47% and short positions decreasing by 25%. For as long as the ratio remains net long, the SSI signals further losses in the pair. The one caveat is that the USDCHF ratio is still net long, which suggests that losses in the EURUSD could be limited to the 1.2150-1.2100 levels. British Pound A slew of data was released during the overnight session for the U.K. economy with most, if not all, of the focus being placed on the retail sales figure. With central bankers placing overwhelming concern on the domestic consumption component of the economy, this would be the first suggestion of better things to come as well as providing any direction in future short term interest rate decisions. To the disappointment of the market, stifled by rising costs of energy, the individual consumer remained timid in making any new purchases as the figure declined for the month. However, dipping in July, the fall was better than expected and suggestive of a potential bottom, lending to plenty of upside potential. Additionally, it could be perceived simply as a retracement of the 1.3 percent rise in the prior month. However, it remains that with housing valuations flat lining and mortgage rate payments climbing, domestic demand continues to suffer as less and less disposable income can be used. As a result, figures that continue to mimic the August 9th release of the British Retail Consortium quarterly report still remain a thorn in the economy’s side. Our readers will remember that the BRC reported sales that were unequivocally the worst for any July month in a decade. Given both factors, it would be reasonable to expect a short term reversal in British fortunes as a product of the recent short term rate cuts. Only time will tell. Japanese Yen With no economic data for the Japanese economy, the currency pair was restricted to a narrow trading range for most of the session. However, with tomorrow’s consumer confidence report, a spate of action could be in the cards for the currency. With special attention being placed on the household component, the report is expected to be reflective of the much improved department store sales data earlier in the month. However, given certain underlying political factors, a decline in the reading may also be warranted. First and foremost will be the recent passing of legislation by parliament that will drastically reduce the current tax rebate which consumers receive annually. Potentially being abolished in 2007, the retraction of the 1999 legislation would ultimately place an unwanted financial burden on consumers. A burden to the tune of approximately $30 billion. As a result, along with higher pension obligations and narrower payout distribution, the consumer will have lesser amounts to feed their consumption habit, eroding at potential growth. Comparatively, with wages on the rise and equity markets at four year highs, consumers may feel the need to cast aside current taxes and higher energy costs. Nonetheless, we did see increased buying of U.S. treasuries in the month, almost double the week before. Rising $1.4 billion in the week, the increased interest looks to be attributed to higher interest rates as domestic investors look abroad for higher returns.。

	AP Euro Extends Slide Against Dollar Friday August 19, 3:50 am ET   Euro Extends Slide Against Dollar, Fueled by Expectations of Higher Interest Rates BERLIN (AP) -- The euro was down against the dollar Friday, extending into its sixth day a slide that has been fueled by expectations of higher interest rates in the United States and strong U.S. economic data. The 12-nation euro bought $1.2157 in early European trading, down from $1.2180 late Thursday in New York. The British pound also fell, slipping to $1.7905 from $1.7935. The U.S. currency was barely changed against the Japanese yen, edging up to 110.52 from 110.51 yen. The dollar has advanced against the euro all week as economic reports showed both consumer and wholesale price inflation accelerating in the United States in July, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to lift interest rates. Higher U.S. rates would boost returns on many dollar-denominated securities, increasing demand for the currency. On Thursday, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia boosted optimism about the U.S. economy. It showed manufacturing activity in August was stronger than July and stronger than analysts expected in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.。

	不懂。

	不学自然不懂. 不过,你不是孤独的, 不用担心.。

	3:50 am ET  上文是美国东部时间吗？。

	原帖由 softarts 于 2005-8-19 22:14 发表 3:50 am ET  上文是美国东部时间吗？。 是的.。

	看了一下关于EUR部分，是指在当前位置ASIA央行可能会有EUR的买盘? 另外，这段话的意思是? The euro was little changed at $1.2170. That was in sight of the two-week low around $1.2160 hit on Thursday, when its fall gained momentum after breaking through the key technical level of $1.2250. 破技术支撑位2250后汇跌向2160? 我开始理解成EUR空头获利回吐了。