1217~0118 欧美短线交易贴（附镑美中线分析）

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	The euro area 欧元区 Déjà vu 似曾相识 Jan 3rd 2008 From The Economist print edition The euro area is not immune to the ills that afflict America and Britain 欧元区对折磨英美的疾病并无免疫力                                 登录/注册后可看大图 （插图作者：Satoshi Kambayashi） EARLY in the new year of 2001, Lucas Papademos attended his first meeting of the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate-setting council. Mr Papademos was there to represent Greece, which had just joined the single currency. A day before the meeting, the Federal Reserve had lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point, the first of a string of cuts aimed at staving off recession. The ECB declined to follow the Fed's lead, deciding to keep its benchmark rate unchanged. 2001年新年伊始，作为刚刚使用欧洲统一货币的希腊政府的代表，Lucas Papademos首次出席欧洲中央银行（Eruopean CenrelBank，以下简称ECB）利率制定会议。会议开始前一天，美联储降息0.5个百分点，并由此展开一轮旨在防止经济衰退的降息风潮。ECB并没有效仿美联储的做法，而是决定保持基准利率不变。 Seven years on, the ECB enters the new year in an eerily similar position. On January 10th its policy meeting will welcome central-bank governors from two new members, Cyprus and Malta, which both adopted the euro on New Year's Day. Now, as then, inflation of close to 3% is the bank's main worry, since it remains fairly upbeat about GDP growth. The ECB's economists expect the euro area to grow by 1.5-2.5% this year—broadly in line with its potential, in other words, albeit with downside risks. Similarly, the bank expected “continuing robust, albeit slightly lower growth rates” at the start of 2001, despite worries about America's economy. 七年过去了。新年来临之际，ECB面临的处境与当初惊人的相似。在1月10日的政策会议上，ECB将迎来两个新成员国——塞浦路斯和马耳他的央行行长。该两国均已在元旦使用了欧元。当前，在ECB对其GDP增长仍持乐观态度的情况下，接近3%的通货膨胀率便成了最令它担心的事情。ECB的经济学家们预计欧元区虽面临多种不利风险，但仍有巨大潜力实现1.5%-2.5%的GDP增长。同样地，在2001年初，即便美国经济令人忧心忡忡，ECB仍认为欧元区经济的增长“虽会略微放缓，但势头将持续强劲”。 The first policy summit of 2008 is very likely to end with a decision to keep rates on hold, just as the January 2001 meeting did. Indeed the ECB is more minded to lift rates than cut them, judging from comments made by Jean-Claude Trichet, its president, following the bank's last meeting on December 6th. But if events keep playing out just as they did seven years ago, the ECB will be forced into lowering rates later this year. 2008年首次ECB政策峰会很有可能做出保持利率不变的决定，正如2001年的做法一样。从ECB行长Jean-Claude Trichet在去年12月6日最后一次ECB会议会后的讲话判断，ECB的确更倾向于提高而不是降低汇率。然而如果事态走势同7年前一样的话，ECB将被迫在今年晚些时候降低利率。 Much depends on the economy's response to malfunctioning credit markets and the gathering economic gloom in America. An optimist would argue that the euro zone will prove resilient, because it does not have America's legacy of struggling subprime borrowers, its current-account deficit or its housing bubble. 这将主要取决于欧元区经济对信贷市场危机以及美国经济复苏的反应。乐观者也许会说事实将证明欧元区适应力很强，因为它不像美国那样，需要面对众多痛苦挣扎的次级债借款者、经常项目赤字以及房地产市场泡沫等遗留局面。 A closer look prompts a less sanguine assessment. Europe has its own property hotspots. House-price gains in Spain and Ireland have been far greater than in America over the past decade. Both markets are now cooling. Even if Ireland's economy is too small to be a big part of the ECB's reckoning, Spain does have enough clout to alter the course of the euro area. Thomas Meyer at Deutsche Bank reckons that in the past five years, Spain accounted for more than one-third of the growth in consumer spending, more than half of the increase in investment and nearly two-thirds of the job gains of the euro area's big four economies. 如果观察仔细些，也许就不会这么乐观了。欧洲也有房地产热。过去十年间，西班牙和爱尔兰两国房价的上涨幅度远远大于美国。现在两国的房地产市场正在逐步降温。如果说爱尔兰的经济太小不足以左右ECB的决策，那么西班牙的影响力绝对足以改变欧元区的发展方向。德意志银行的Thomas Meyer指出过去五年间，在欧元区的四大经济体中，超过三分之一的居民消费增长、超过一般的投资增长以及接近三分之二的就业机会增加都归功于西班牙。 The good times may be ending. Spain's boom has been built on a ready supply of loans. But the credit squeeze means borrowed funds are now harder to come by, which leaves its economy vulnerable. Cooling housing markets in France and in Italy are likely to hurt those economies too. 好日子也许就要结束了。西班牙的繁荣是建立在充足的贷款的基础之上的。但是眼下的信贷紧缩意味着很难筹集借入资金，西班牙经济将因此变得脆弱。法国和意大利房地产市场的降温同样会伤害两国的经济。 The euro zone also has financial imbalances to contend with. True, its current account has been broadly balanced, in contrast with America's large and persistent deficits. But that is mostly because Germany's current-account surplus, equivalent to 6% of GDP last year according to the OECD, has acted as a huge counterweight to deficits elsewhere. 欧元区同样需要解决金融不平衡的问题。诚然，同美国长期的巨额赤字相比，欧元区的经常项目总体上讲是平衡的。但是，这主要是德国的经常项目盈余与其他国家的赤字相抵消的结果。根据OECD公布的数据，2007年德国的经常项目盈余相当于GDP的6%。 The high level of saving by German firms contributes to this handsome surplus and masks a worrying fault line running through the euro area. Outside Germany, companies are heavily dependent on borrowing to finance their capital spending, which makes the outlook for investment very sensitive to conditions in credit markets. David Owen at Dresdner Kleinwort reckons that if Germany is excluded, the corporate sector's financing gap (the difference between income and spending) was almost 6% of GDP last year. That is a bigger funding shortfall than in 2000, on the eve of a savage retrenchment by firms that hurt jobs as well as investment (see chart). 德国公司的高水平储蓄使德国经常项目出现可观的盈余，并掩盖了欧元区内暗流般蔓延的担忧。在德国以外，各公司过分依赖借贷来为其资本开支筹集资金，使得其投资前景对信贷市场的状况十分敏感。Dresdner Kleinwort公司的David Owen指出，如果不算德国，各公司融资缺口（即收入和支出之间的差额）大约是欧元区去年GDP的6%。这一融资缺口比2000年那场破坏就业和投资的野蛮的公司紧缩战略风波前夕的缺口还要大（见图）。                                 登录/注册后可看大图 Companies' reliance on borrowing is all the more worrying since banks play a far bigger role as suppliers of capital in Europe than in America. The banks' troubles have not yet crippled the supply of loans to companies. Indeed, as Mr Trichet pointed out last month, such borrowing rose by 13.9% in the year to October, a rate that “does not suggest that we are experiencing a credit crunch”. That could be premature. Mr Owen thinks the surge in borrowing may reflect firms taking up pre-arranged credit lines while they can. 自从银行在欧洲扮演着远比在美国重要的资本提供者角色以来，人们就愈发担心公司对借贷的依赖度问题。银行面临的困难尚未削弱对公司的贷款供应。的确，正如 Trichet先生上月指出，截至10月份，借款额上升了13.9%，这一数据“说明我们并未经历信贷危机。”这一断言也许为时过早。Owen先生认为借款额的激增可能只能说明公司趁着为时未晚的时候使用了早已被授予的信贷额度。 The euro area may shrug off these ills, particularly if Germany powers ahead and consumer spending picks up. Germany's export machine has been fuelled by vigorous demand in emerging economies. Moreover, its companies can readily finance capital spending from profits. Even so, Mr Meyer at Deutsche Bank reckons that the export performance of the past two years is “unrepeatable”. A strong euro and sluggish growth (or worse) in Britain and America, the euro area's two biggest markets, mean exports are a less reliable source of demand. 欧元区可能会对这些疾病嗤之以鼻，尤其是在德国经济全速前进以及居民消费加快的情况下。新兴市场的强大需求为德国这架出口机器加足了油。此外，德国公司可以从利润中为资本支出提供足够的资金。然而即便如此，德意志银行的Meyer先生指出德国过去两年内的出口表现是“不可复制”的。强势欧元以及英国和美国这两个欧元区最大市场疲软的经济增长（或者更差）意味着出口不再是那么可靠的需求来源。 The lesson of 2001 is that when the outlook for the economy appears bad enough, the ECB will cut interest rates, even if inflation is stubbornly high. Already, two other inflation-targeting central banks—in Britain and Canada—have followed the Fed's lead. If the banking crisis persists, the ECB may have to do likewise. 2001的教训是当经济预期足够糟糕的时候，即便通货膨胀率高居不下，ECB也会降低利率。而另外两个同样实行通货膨胀目标制的中央银行——英国和加拿大的央行已经仿效了美国的做法。如果银行危机持续下去，ECB也许不得不采取同样的措施。 [ 本帖最后由 yygyisme 于 2008-1-7 16:19 编辑 ]

	不用加点保护现在~ 维持停损。

	回撤4695仍然可以加空~

	可非美货币反弹很强劲

	刚才欧元应该是遇到支撑了吧

	4700似乎也可以到达。。。是加空的好点。